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The Palestinian faction is likely to demand substantial amendments to Donald Trump's Gaza ceasefire proposal but could ultimately accept the outline in the coming days as a foundation for renewed negotiations, as per analysts and insiders close to the group.

The US President's Deadline and Plan Details

The US president imposed a time limit of “three or four days” from Tuesday for the group to respond to his 20-point proposal, which aims to conclude the two-year war in the Gaza Strip and allow an seemingly open-ended global oversight of the war-torn territory, or confront serious consequences.

Gaza-based analyst Mkhaimar Abusada remarked that Hamas now confronts a choice between “the bad and the worst.” He added, “Should they refuse Trump's plan, as Trump has made clear, the outcome will be unfavorable and will permit Israeli forces to take all necessary actions to finish this. Hamas will likely say ‘yes, however we require this and that’.”

Hamas's Key Concerns

Hugh Lovatt commented that it would be extremely challenging for Hamas to accept the conditions unconditionally. “This is reasonable. The text lacks details. But any response short of full and unconditional approval will be exploited by the group by Israel, the US government, and possibly the Europeans,” he explained.

Israel's prime minister has endorsed the Trump plan, which incorporated several of the country's principal requirements and was drafted without consulting Hamas.

Netanyahu, who is wanted for alleged war crimes by the international criminal court from the military campaign in the territory, has stated that the country would “complete its mission” if Hamas rejected the proposal or delayed its implementation. Earlier this year, Israeli forces unilaterally broke a two-month ceasefire, refusing to proceed with a planned second phase that might have definitively ended hostilities.

Internal Disagreements and External Influence

The group's leadership are divided among Turkey, Qatar, and Gaza, which hinders discussions on the faction's reply. Turkey and Qatari authorities are putting pressure on Hamas to make concessions.

One sticking point is the plan's demand that the faction surrender weapons, a insider familiar with the organization said. The handover of all weapons would be very difficult for Hamas to accept, particularly without any political process or substantial progress toward a Palestinian state.

“There exist varying viewpoints inside the organization. The membership in Qatar are often more pragmatic, particularly compared to the military leadership in Gaza. There is an obvious need to have the support of the military wing, and the ordinary members,” Lovatt said.

Conflict Background and Humanitarian Toll

The war were triggered by the Hamas raid into Israeli territory that resulted in the deaths of over a thousand individuals, primarily non-combatants. About 250 were captured, of whom forty-eight are still in the territory, though fewer than half are surviving.

Over 66,000 individuals, mostly non-combatants, have been fatally injured by the Israeli military campaign in the region, much of the area reduced to ruins, and most of the 2.3 million population displaced repeatedly.

Trump's Proposal Details

The US plan will mandate the militants to release the remaining Israeli hostages within 72 hours of a truce starting, the gradual withdrawal of Israeli military forces to a buffer zone along the edge, and a increase of humanitarian aid. It also stipulates the Israeli government to free more than a thousand detainees, a number imprisoned for life, which Hamas could frame as a major achievement.

Another issue for Hamas is the unclear assurance of troop pullbacks, though the explicit mention that there will be no takeover or occupation of the territory by Israel was viewed positively by an insider familiar with Hamas.

The Group's Current Condition and Capabilities

Some analysts argue that internal disagreements within Hamas are often exaggerated.

“I don't think there is a genuine division among Gaza, the Palestinian territories, and the external officials. All factions concur on opposing the weapons surrender because the armed struggle is such a deep principle in their nature and identity,” said an expert on Hamas.

Hamas has experienced very significant losses in the conflict. Thousands of fighters have been eliminated, along with almost all top commanders. Research by an independent monitor found that at least forty leaders and important figures in the armed faction had been targeted by air attacks since March. Their deaths have left only one senior commander from Hamas's pre-7 October command structure remaining active, ACLED reported.

But the faction continues guerrilla operations and maintains fragments of administration in the absence of any alternative. Aid workers in the territory said that the faction still had a strong presence in Gaza City, the “refugee areas” in the south, and the beach area of a coastal region.

The organization, which was founded in 1987, has enlisted many of fresh recruits who, though inexperienced and poorly equipped, can cause harm on Israeli forces.

Milshtein noted that, according to military sources, ninety percent of leaders had been eliminated, ninety-seven percent of its missiles used or neutralized, but only 40% of the faction's extensive tunnel network had been eliminated. “The group has adapted to the current situation. They remain operational in areas where the [Israeli military] has stated the group is eliminated, but it is impossible to completely destroy Hamas. They have metamorphosed and they have survived,” he said.

Within Hamas Opposition to the Plan

Some inside the group are committed to opposing the US proposal outright.

“There is a faction from the armed branch, especially the newer members, which aims to keep fighting,” Lovatt explained. “They believe is that Israel is facing challenges: the mobilization of part-time soldiers is a significant strain, elections are due within a year, there is growing global and local criticism … So, for this faction, it’s just a matter of who will hold out the longest.”