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At first, Trump seemed to adopt a strong approach regarding the Ukrainian conflict. Following delivering statements of "serious ramifications" during the summer in case Putin continued blocking ceasefire discussions, he finally imposed substantial restrictions on the Russian two largest energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move substantially hindered the Russian leader's capacity to fund his aggression in Ukraine.

Yet, with his latest 28-point peace plan for the conflict, reportedly drafted by US and Russian representatives lacking Ukrainian or European involvement, Trump has apparently gone back to his pro-Putin stance.

Rewarding Military Action

Trump's initiative would in practice reward Putin for attacking Ukraine while putting the country's political freedom in peril. Although ringing statements that "Ukraine's autonomy will be upheld", large portions of the plan actually weaken that same sovereignty. This constitutes a Kremlin dream would probably be a catastrophe for the nation.

Reflecting his real-estate background, Trump persists to consider the war as a mere border issue, implying handing Putin a section of Ukraine's territory will appease the ruler. However, Putin's military campaign is not merely about occupying a damaged swath of deindustrialized area in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about the nation's political system – and the Russian leader's clear desire to eliminate it so it ceases to functions as an attractive standard for the Russian people of the democratic leadership that his growing authoritarian rule withholds them.

Land Giveaways

Although freezing in status the already split oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's initiative would require Ukraine to give up all of Donetsk region. Beyond rewarding the Russian Federation with territory that its forces have been unsuccessful to capture in more than a decade of fighting, this giveaway would make Ukrainian military defenses severely undermined.

The area is the location of the nation's highly-touted "fortress belt", the entrenched protective structures that constitute a essential impediment to Russian advances. Trump would have the Ukrainian military surrender these fortifications, giving Putin a clear route to Kyiv in case he later opt to restart the hostilities.

Military Reductions

Additionally, in a step that would enable additional hostilities easier for Russia, the plan would mandate Ukraine to cut the scale of its military from their current approximately 800,000 troops to a limit of 600,000. Notably, the plan places no such constraints on Russian forces.

Seemingly as a accommodation to Russia's campaign to characterize the nation's democratically elected government as Nazis, Trump's plan asserts: "All Nazi belief system and activities must be rejected and prohibited." Seemingly to underscore this element, it demands that "The nation will hold political contests in three months" of a truce. Meanwhile, Trump sets no condition that Putin risk his authoritarian rule by allowing votes in his own country.

Security Commitments

To be sure, the plan has the Russian Federation commit not to "enter other states" and to "incorporate in law its policy of non-aggression towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". Yet considering that Putin has breached equivalent treaties in the past – for example the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government pledged to respect the nation's sovereignty in exchange for relinquishing its former Soviet atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia agreed to a halt in fighting and a handback of captured areas in the region to Kyiv – for what reason should the international community have confidence in this commitment on this occasion?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on western defense commitments. Although the plan promises a "immediate unified armed reaction" should the Russian Federation restart its military campaign, and states that "The nation will receive reliable protection assurances", the details vary from vague to concerning. The initiative would not only prevent Ukraine accession to NATO but also prevent alliance nations from positioning troops on the nation's land, thereby precluding the peacekeeping contingent, presumptively commanded by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been depending to prevent Putin from replenishing his reduced troops, restocking, and resuming aggression.

World Concern

Another side agreement according to sources would provide Ukraine with a Nato-style defense commitment, in which any later "serious, planned, and continuous armed attack" by Russia on the country "will be treated as an act of war endangering the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." This implies a armed reaction. However in contrast to a strong national defense – Ukraine's primary protection against renewed invasion – the success of the side agreement would depend on the dedication of Nato leaders, such as the US administration, to react through arms to Russia's attacks, an action they have {not