UK Diplomats Cautioned Regarding Armed Intervention to Topple Zimbabwe's Leader

Recently released papers show that the Foreign Office advised against British military intervention to overthrow the then Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "viable option".

Policy Papers Show Considerations on Handling a "Remarkably Robust" Dictator

Internal documents from Tony Blair's government indicate officials weighed up options on how best to deal with the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old dictator, who refused to step down as the country fell into violence and economic chaos.

Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential courses of action.

Policy of Isolation Considered Ineffective

Diplomats concluded that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and forging an international consensus for change was not working, having not managed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Options outlined in the files were:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by military means";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the approach advocated by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that altering a government and/or its bad policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The FCO paper rejected military action as not a "serious option," adding that "The only candidate for leading such a military operation is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Warnings of Heavy Casualties and Legal Hurdles

It warned that military involvement would cause heavy casualties and have "considerable implications" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a severe human and political catastrophe – resulting in widespread bloodshed, significant exodus of refugees, and instability in the region – we assess that no nation in Africa would agree to any efforts to remove Mugabe by force."

The paper continues: "Nor do we judge that any other international ally (including the US) would sanction or participate in military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Playing the Longer Game Advocated

Blair's foreign policy adviser, Laurie Lee, warned him that Zimbabwe "could become a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been discounted, "we probably have to accept that we must play the longer game" and re-engage with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, noting: "We should work out a way of exposing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then subsequently, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a clear understanding."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had advocated cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has said and done".

Robert Mugabe was finally deposed in a 2017 coup, aged 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure Thabo Mbeki into joining a armed alliance to depose Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the former UK premier.