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The UK's domestic intelligence agency as well as counter-terror officers are set to function under a heightened level of vigilance over the next few weeks, indicating apprehension that the assault on the Manchester synagogue could be followed by further incidents during a timeframe that encompasses the two-year mark of the October 7th attack by Hamas against Israel.

Increased Protective Steps at Jewish Places of Worship

Security presence around Jewish temples nationwide is to be strengthened. Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, promised “high visibility” patrols in and outside Jewish places of worship to provide comfort to communities and to deter additional dangers, as law enforcement elsewhere in the UK made similar commitments.

Preliminary Investigations and Motivation

Investigations into the attack are still in initial phases, however the primary hypothesis is that the assailant, who was fatally shot by officers, was driven by Islamist extremism. There is no information in the public domain concerning whether he was potentially radicalised by the continued Israeli military campaign and Palestinian fatalities within the Gaza Strip.

Specifics of the Incident

The attack, occurring around 9:30 in the morning at the Heaton Park Hebrew Congregation synagogue in the Crumpsall area of Manchester, which killed two and left four critically wounded four individuals, was not sophisticated.

There were concerns the perpetrator was in possession of an explosive device and appeared to have a vest and objects strapped to his waist, but the items were fakes. Victims at the synagogue, who were observing the last day of Yom Kippur, were attacked with a knife.

Key Line of Investigation

A major focus for investigators is if the attacker acted alone, although there is believed to be no any ongoing threat to the general population.

Terrorist schemes directed from overseas, once the norm in the era of al-Qaeda, have grown uncommon and individuals are typically extremised by consuming media or gaining information online.

Altered Security Landscape

Authorities also acknowledged that the two-year conflict between Israel and Gaza has changed the threat environment.

A couple of years back, the head of MI5 said: “It is evident that there is the possibility that significant developments in the Middle East will either generate an increase of threats to the UK, and/or alter the nature in terms of the focus of attacks, in terms of where individuals draw motivation.”

Global Situation

In August, Anthony Albanese said that Iran had directed at least two attacks against his nation's Jewish population, following an investigation by the Australian Security and Intelligence Organisation, which said it had “credible intelligence” to that end.

The attacks had been ordered by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, working through compensated agents operating within Australia, and the revelations led the Australian administration to expel Tehran’s ambassador to Canberra from Australia.

At present, there is no evidence in the public domain to suggest any hostile state involvement or direction in the assault in Manchester.

Terror Threat Level

A assessment of the national terrorism threat level by the JTAC, which is housed inside MI5, is standard procedure after a significant event. It has been maintained at substantial, the third highest of five categories, since early 2022 and currently is not expected to be raised. However, this will be kept under close review.

A conclusive determination will depend heavily on the proof that emerges over the next few days from a search of the attacker’s mobile device and other digital devices, his online histories and his personal belongings.

Historical Context

The last period of significant Islamist terrorism attacks was in the spring and summer of 2017, beginning with an incident on Westminster Bridge in March and succeeded by additional attacks at Manchester Arena and another city bridge in May and June in that order.

Ideologically similar attacks are not the only concern for law enforcement and intelligence services. Two weeks after the London Bridge incident, a vehicle was driven into a mosque at Finsbury Park, in a planned violent act after a time of increased strain.

Persistent Danger

Although the emphasis of the past few years has been on state threats to the UK – particularly from the Russian Federation since the start of its full-scale invasion of the Ukraine, but also Iran and China - MI5 has been clear that the danger posed by extremism persists.

A year ago, in his last annual review, McCallum reported the security service and the police had disrupted “43 advanced terrorist plans” since the Westminster incident in spring 2017. Three quarters involved schemes by Islamist extremists, he noted.